DNV's Energy Transition Outlook 2021
二大一廣場／《國際零時差》綠能：風光成本持續下降 | 名家 | 三立新聞網 SETN.COM
DNV每年會公布能源轉型展望報告，完整介紹其對於再生能源、電動車、綠色氫能等能源轉型技術的發展現狀與未來預估，其中2021年版本簡介如下。
注意本報告對於核能的成本預測十分樂觀，但這並沒有造成DNV GL對核能在2050年能源系統的占比有很高的預估。
Annual installations will continue to rise. Installed capacity for grid-connected capacity for solar PV and solar PV + storage, will reach 500GW in 2030, thereafter adding between 300 and 500 GW per year through to 2050. Within a decade, about a quarter of all PV installed will be with dedicated storage, and by mid-century this share will have risen to half.
In 2050, total installed capacity will be 8.4 TW for solar PV and 4.0 TW for PV + storage. Thus, a total of 12.4 TW solar-powered grid electricity in 2050. This is a 20-fold growth compared with the 2019 capacity of 610 GW.
Installed capacity reached 709 GW at the beginning of 2020. We forecast 1 TW in 2022, 2 TW in 2029, 4 TW in 2043, and 5.9 TW in 2050, of which 1.7 TW will be offshore (Table 3.1). These developments are linked to larger turbines, mega-sized projects, and a more dedicated offshore supply chain.
The largest reduction in the average LCOE from onshore wind will come from increasing capacity factors and cheaper turbines